"Today Gaza, Tomorrow Jerusalem"
Are Israel's critics
correct? Does the "occupation" of the West Bank
and Gaza cause the Palestinian Arabs' anti-Semitism, their suicide
factories, and their terrorism? And is it true these horrors will end
only when Israeli civilians and troops leave the territories?
The answer is coming
soon. Starting August 15, the Israeli
government will evict about 8,000 Israelis from Gaza and turn their
land over to the Palestinian Authority. In addition to being a
unique event in modern history
(no other democracy has forcibly uprooted thousands of its own citizens
of one religion from their lawful homes), it also offers a rare, live,
social-science experiment.
We stand at an
interpretive divide. If Israel's critics are right,
the Gaza withdrawal will improve Palestinian attitudes toward Israel,
leading to an end of incitement and a steep drop in attempted violence,
followed by a renewal of negotiations and a full settlement. Logic
requires, after all, that if "occupation" is the problem, ending it,
even partially, will lead to a solution.
But I forecast a very
different outcome. Given that about 80% of
Palestinian Arabs continue to reject Israel's very existence, signs of
Israeli weakness, such as the forthcoming Gaza withdrawal, will instead
inspire heightened Palestinian irredentism. Absorbing their new gift
without gratitude, Palestinian Arabs will focus on those territories
Israelis have not evacuated. (This is what happened after Israeli forces
fled Lebanon.)
The retreat will inspire not comity but a new rejectionist
exhilaration, a greater frenzy of anti-Zionist anger, and a surge in
anti-Israel violence.
..............
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